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Inventory Levels Rise

September 2nd, 2015 | L and K Group

Calgary Real Estate Board Update

August sales activity falls below long-term averages

“Calgary’s residential resale housing market recorded further easing in absorption rates in August due to weaker sales activity.

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Housing Prices To Ease In Second Half, CREB Forecasts

July 30th, 2015 | L and K Group

CALGARY REAL ESTATE BOARD

HALF YEAR FORECAST UPDATE

 HOUSING PRICES TO EASE IN SECOND HALF  

Calgary Real Estate Board Half Year Update

Continued weakness in housing demand will limit downward pressure on supply levels and cause prices to ease in the second half of the year, CREB® said in its 2015 mid-year forecast. Despite this anticipated retraction, Calgary’s benchmark prices are only expected to decline by less than one per cent on an annual basis. 

“Further job losses are expected in the second half of the year,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “These employment changes, combined with overall weakness and slower than anticipated recovery of oil prices, are expected to keep housing demand relatively weak for the rest of 2015. However, with the initial shock of oil price declines having dissipated, the pullback in sales activity in the second quarter is not expected to be as dramatic as the first part of the year,” said Lurie.

Overall sales activity in Calgary is forecasted to total 19,798 in 2015, a 22 per cent decline relative to last year, but only six per cent lower than average activity over the past five years.

Dramatic swings in new listings during the first half of the year caused inventory levels to rise, but by June, they remained below previous highs. Over the second half of the year, inventory levels traditionally ease as we move toward the fall and winter markets. However, this year housing supply levels are expected to remain relatively elevated due to improved selection in the rental markets, completion of projects under construction, and an easing in the rate of decline in resale new listings. 

While some price moderation is expected moving forward, it should be noted that it’s not going to be the double-digit decline that some have suggested. In part, this is related to the limited supply in the market moving into this next cycle. Also, the forecasted pullback in employment and migration is not going to be as severe as what occurred last time we recorded significant price declines. The City of Calgary residential benchmark price is expected to average $448,354 for 2015, a modest 0.20 per cent decline over the previous year.

“It’s a two sided coin when talking about pricing for buyers and sellers,” said CREB® president Corinne Lyall. “Some buyers have the expectation that they will get significant price reductions in this market, but that’s not always the case. In some areas, supply levels are more balanced with demand and that creates price stability. On the other hand, in most situations, it will be the sellers who need to adjust expectations, particularly if they have to compete with a large amount of comparable product in the neighbourhood.”

While slower demand is impacting all sectors of the market, the apartment sector is expected to record the largest pull-back in both sales and price growth in the second half. Challenges in this segment are linked to the rising supply in competing markets. There is more selection is the detached and attached segments, which makes it difficult to attract buyers. Sellers also faced added competition from new apartment units and increased selection in the rental market. 

Meanwhile, activity in the detached segments will continue to vary based on price and location. Continued weakness in demand relative to supply levels, particularly in the higher price ranges, are expected to cause aggregate detached benchmark home prices to decline in the second half of this year. However, annual prices are expected to remain relatively unchanged compared to last year. Overall, detached sales are expected to total 12,105 units in 2015, a 19.8 per cent decline over last year.

“It’s important for active housing consumers to understand what type of comparable property is available by product type, community and price range,” said Lyall. “While some degree of competition exists in every market condition, most sellers in the current environment will need to take extra care in setting realistic expectations to attract a good crop of potential buyers. This kind of smart pricing may encourage buyers who are sitting on the sidelines to consider entering the market if they are in a position to do so.”

As with any market forecast, there are several factors that could influence the outlook. On the upside, if there is no further deterioration in the economic climate, it’s possible that the pullback in housing demand could be less severe. In this scenario, potential buyers who are in the market may decide to take advantage of higher supply levels and overlook short-term risks in favour of the positive long-term outlook. This possibility could keep market conditions relatively balanced in the second half and prevent any further price declines.

 “Ultimately, what happens to prices will depend on supply levels and how much they go up or down against demand,” said Lurie. “The duration of this economic downturn and the resulting job loss will determine which direction supply will go in the months ahead.”

Click here to view the full monthly stats package. 

 

“If you have any questions about how these stats can affect the sale and purchase of your home, please feel free to contact us here.”

June Sales Consistent With Typical Levels

July 3rd, 2015 | L and K Group

CALGARY REAL ESTATE BOARD UPDATE

 CALGARY SALES CONSISTENT WITH TYPICAL LEVELS  

Calgary Real Estate Board Update

Despite the 18 per cent year-over-year decline in June home sales, for a total of 2,183 units, transaction levels remain only five per cent below the 10 year average for June and three per cent above levels over the past five years.

“We’ve seen less concern from consumers lately,” said CREB® president Corinne Lyall. “One of the main reasons is that we haven’t seen the worst case scenarios play out in the energy and housing sectors.”
  
“Consumers who were waiting for wide-spread price declines have been surprised to see that it just hasn’t happened yet, and so they’ve decided to take advantage of the improved selection and lower lending rates,” said Lyall.
  
The level of new listings that came on the market in June totaled 3,122 units, resulting in the second month of elevated absorption rates, which placed downward pressure on inventory levels. The overall months of supply continues to remain balanced at 2.3 months.

With conditions remaining relatively stable in June, there was minimal pressure on home prices. The city-wide benchmark price totaled $455,400, a respective monthly and year-over-year gain of 0.29 and 0.13 per cent.

“Even though city-wide prices were essentially unchanged in June, it’s important to note that activity can vary significantly depending on community, property type and price range,” said Lyall. “Every transaction has its own unique features, which is why we always encourage consumers to discuss these differences with local experts.”

Second quarter results pointed towards more stability in the market. The year-over-year decline in sales activity eased from 32 per cent in the first quarter to 22 per cent in the second quarter.  Meanwhile, the level of pullback of new listings outweighed the gains recorded in the first quarter, resulting in a year-to-date decline of nearly eight per cent.

While both sales and new listings have slowed for each property type within the city, the apartment sector continues to report the weakest absorption rates.
  
The weaker rates in this sector are now impacting prices. Despite last month’s improvement in price, the second quarter benchmark price was 0.81 per cent below levels recorded last year and 0.93 per cent below first quarter figures. Year-to-date unadjusted apartment averages continue to remain 1.65 per cent above last year’s levels.

In the detached segment, benchmark prices totaled $515,500 in June, slightly higher than last month and 0.4 per cent higher than June 2014 prices. Meanwhile, the year-to-date benchmark price for detached properties remained 3.44 per cent above last year’s figures.

Against this backdrop, the year-to-date average and median detached home price for Calgary has reported declines of 2.26 and 1.54 per cent city-wide. This doesn’t come as a surprise, given that the share of sales activity has declined in the higher price ranges.
  
“The housing market is showing some signs of stability right now,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.  “However, there are several risk factors that could influence the market in the second half of the year,” said Lurie. “Many of these factors will be addressed in CREB®’s mid-year forecast update, which will be released at the end of July.”

Click here to view the full monthly stats package. 

 

“If you have any questions about how these stats can affect the sale and purchase of your home, please feel free to contact us here.”

Market Moves Toward Balanced Conditions

June 2nd, 2015 | L and K Group

CALGARY REAL ESTATE BOARD UPDATE

 CALGARY HOUSING PRICES CHANGE DIRECTION IN MAY  

Calgary Real Estate Board Update

For the first time since December 2014, Calgary’s residential unadjusted benchmark prices improved over the previous month. Within the city of Calgary, housing prices totaled $454,100 in May, a monthly and year-over-year increase of 0.55 and 0.96 per cent. 

“For the third month in the row, new listings have eased compared to last year, helping push the market toward more balanced conditions, despite the current environment of slower sales activity,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “This has helped prevent further declines in the unadjusted benchmark price.”

New listings in the city of Calgary totaled 3,161 units in May, a 27 per cent decrease over last year. Meanwhile, total inventory levels for the month were 5,342 units, 16 per cent higher than last year, but eight per cent lower than May levels recorded over the past five years and three per cent lower than average levels over the past 10 years.

Two measures of balance are the months of supply and the sales to new listings ratio. In May, the months of supply decreased to 2.43, while the sales to new listings ratio was 69 per cent, both within the norms for balanced conditions.

“Back in January, higher inventory levels relative to sales activity caused months of supply to rise above five months,” said CREB® president Corinne Lyall. “While some challenges continue to exist for sellers, depending on the property type, price and location, the decline in the months of supply points toward more stability for both buyers and sellers.”

Year-to-date the detached sector recorded the largest decline in new listings at eight per cent. While overall inventory levels are 12 per cent higher than last year’s levels, they remain well below the five and 10 year averages for May.

Detached sales activity in May totaled 1,366 units, with the majority of transactions occurring below $500,000. While conditions are not as tight as last year’s market conditions, which favoured the seller, over the first five months of this year activity in this price range has remained relatively balanced.

“This segment of the detached market continues to have a good amount of consumer activity, as many have taken advantage of the improved selection compared to last year,” said Lyall. “While some have waited for steeper price declines, to this point it just hasn’t happened across all areas of the market. This is partly related to activity in the under $500,000 segment.”

Meanwhile, year-to-date apartment sales and new listings totaled 1,383 and 3,229 units respectively. The May apartment benchmark price of $294,800 increased by 1.20 per cent compared to last month, but remains 0.2 per cent below May 2014 figures.

The apartment sector continues to remain the only sector where prices have contracted relative to last year’s figures.

“While the resale market has recorded an easing of upward inventory pressures, the new home sector has started to record some gains in inventory,” said Lurie. “Current new home inventories remain relatively low. However, the overall impact on Calgary’s housing prices will ultimately depend on the duration of the economic slowdown and the amount of inventory build-up in the new home sector.”

Click here to view the full monthly stats package. 

 

“If you have any questions about how these stats can affect the sale and purchase of your home, please feel free to contact us here.”

New Listings Decline As Home Prices Ease

May 5th, 2015 | L and K Group

CALGARY REAL ESTATE BOARD UPDATE

 IMPROVED SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO REDUCES INVENTORY GAINS 

Calgary Real Estate Board Update

After the fifth consecutive monthly benchmark price decline in Calgary, the number of new home listings eased to 3,064 units in April, a decrease of 18 per cent over the previous year. 

“With fewer buyers making purchase decisions and improved selection for resale, new home and rental property, sellers have been either adjusting their expectations on price or delaying their plans about when to list their home,” said CREB® president Corinne Lyall.

Sales activity in April totaled 1,957 units, 22 per cent below last year’s levels and nearly 15 per cent below April’s long term averages. Despite weak sales levels, the drop in new listings prevented strong gains in overall inventory levels and helped improve absorption rates in the market.

“While conditions continue to favour the buyer, both the months of supply and the sales to new listings ratio, which represent measures of market balance, tightened in April,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “If this trend continues, it should help prevent resale inventories from rising to previous highs and limit some of the downward price pressures we’ve been seeing.”

Benchmark prices for detached homes totaled $510,200 in April, which represents an unadjusted decline of 0.7 per cent from last month and 1.9 per cent higher than April 2014 figures. Meanwhile, apartment product recorded a monthly decline of 0.7 and a year-over year decline of 0.2 per cent

Year-to-date apartment sales activity has declined by 33 per cent, while new listings have risen by nearly eight per cent. Despite the recent shift in new listings, months of supply in this sector remain elevated, causing steeper monthly price declines and a year-over-year price contraction.

“There’s improved selection across all segments of the market, which takes some of the urgency away for buyers as they consider all of their options before making a purchase decision,” said Lyall. “Sellers have more competition and need to be aware of how much product is available in comparable neighborhoods.”

The detached sector continues to be the most balanced out of the three market sectors. For the second month in a row, the sales to new listings ratio and the months of inventory moved to levels that are more consistent with balanced conditions. However, the detached market does vary significantly depending on the price range.

“Higher priced properties in the detached sector saw a noticeable decline in absorption levels city-wide, indicating there is less demand relative to supply levels,” said Lurie. “This does not come as a surprise as many of the job losses in recent months have occurred in the higher paying sectors.”

Meanwhile, areas outside city limits are also impacted by the slower economic conditions. Year-to-date sales activity in the surrounding areas totaled 1,346 units, a 26 per cent decline. Despite positive growth following the first quarter, April benchmark prices totaled $434,800, 0.4 per cent below last month’s figures and 5.8 per cent above April 2014 figures.

“Market impacts on pricing are wide ranging and ultimately depend on the location, property type, specific features and amount of comparable supply available,” said Lyall. Both buyers and sellers need to be aware of the local market conditions and adjust their expectations accordingly.”

Click here to view the full monthly stats package. 

 

“If you have any questions about how these stats can affect the sale and purchase of your home, please feel free to contact us here.”

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